I've gotten a few suggestions that we have a session on moblogging, but I wonder if there's enough to talk about.

I remember that in the 80s people got excited about laptops, justifiably, and some people suggested that there would be a new market for laptop applications, but that market never materialized. The logic went like this -- when personal computers came along, they created a new market and lots of new companies. Microsoft, Lotus, Ashton-Tate, Visicorp, Software Publishing, Micropro, etc. So the thought was that the form-factor was the thing that created the new market, but now I think it's clear that it was low price and ease of use compared to the previous generation. Millions of Apple II's sold for $2K, where thousands of PDP-11s had sold for tens of thousands. It wasn't long before the PCs were more capable than their more geekish, more expensive predecessors.

Then came the CD-ROM industry. Marc Canter asked if there had been a "floppy disk industry." Again, people thought the form-factor was what it was about, but actually it was all a warm-up for the Web and what comes after.  The industry never materialized, even though CD-ROMs were adopted, and now you can't find a floppy anywhere.

It happened again with 802.11, a totally revolutionary technology, but one with no aftermarket. Basically the new wireless capabilities make doing the things we already do with land-connected computers more mobile. It's fantastic, but it doesn't really suggest, in itself, anything new. That of course didn't stop investors from throwing away a lot of money on the assumption that there did.

So you have to be careful when assuming that the latest hot thing yields a new market. The PC did, the Mac did, as did the Web. But moblogging? Give me some compelling applications that are only possible with the new capabilities. Are they new companies or products, or features and tweaks for existing products? Is mobility the magic bullet that makes people want to pay for things they get for free on their landed networks? I don't think so. Convince me!

# Posted by Dave Winer on 4/9/04; 7:37:34 AM - --

Condoleezza Rice's testimony before the 9-11 commission was watched by millions around the globe, as are many events of worldwide importance that are broadcast live. This is television at it's best. Broadcast infrastructure like that of CNN enables a centralized global distribution of information that well justifies it's cost. The internet cannot compete with this model for live events. Imagine millions of people worldwide firing up a live stream to a video server. Even if the load could be effectively distributed, somebody has to pay the bandwidth bill which increases with each additional viewer. In contrast, television's revenue increases with each additional viewer

Now think of the 6 o'clock newscast. While millions tune in simultaneously to watch the same information at the same moment, and even though the news anchor is presenting (reading) the news live, all the elements were ready prior to the broadcast. The weather report was probably prepared an hour ahead of time. The local human interest piece was edited two days ago and put in the show's rundown because it's a 'slow news day'.

Since the invention of the video tape recorder, most content delivered via television is created 'offline' and prepared well in advance of it's broadcast slot. In many cases a program will have to clear through the legal department and be reveiwed for network 'policies'. And so the program sits in a queue, waiting to be distributed. During this time the program could be distributed by bike messengers and still arrive on time when you would normally turn on your set as directed by TV guide. Or... it could be distributed via the internet. Since big files take a long time to download, a day's worth of downloading should be time enough. The download can take place at night, when usage of your network and pc is low and most importantly, you aren't waiting for it. It'll ''just be there' in the morning.

It is this time-shift that Dave Winer and I discussed in the autumn of 2000, which led to rss enclosures. Connecting enclosures to new P2P systems will enable audio and video distribution using existing weblog 'networks'.

At this very moment, desktop tools have an entire 'media literate' generation creating audio and video content that is bursting to be free from their harddrives.

Last year we discussed some of these concepts at BloggerCon. On April 17th I hope to continue the discussion in the 'personal tv networks' discussion at BloggerCon II. We can start it here in the comments panel.

You may also want to attend Andrew Grumet's session on Infrastructure as well, since he will also be touching on enclosures and bittorrent integration

# Posted by Dave Winer on 4/9/04; 6:08:11 AM - --